Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 46,002
2 South Dakota 40,712
3 Louisiana 39,129
4 Mississippi 37,995
5 Alabama 36,112
6 Florida 35,761
7 Iowa 35,575
8 Tennessee 34,276
9 Arkansas 34,063
10 Wisconsin 33,637
11 South Carolina 32,529
12 Arizona 32,274
13 Idaho 31,864
14 Nebraska 31,681
15 Georgia 31,204
16 Utah 31,055
17 Texas 30,731
18 Nevada 30,202
19 Illinois 28,813
20 Oklahoma 28,426
21 Rhode Island 27,935
22 Missouri 27,586
23 Kansas 26,274
24 New Jersey 25,463
25 New York 25,438
26 North Carolina 24,162
27 Delaware 24,161
28 Montana 24,079
29 District of Columbia 23,431
30 Indiana 23,421
31 Maryland 22,904
32 Minnesota 22,732
33 California 22,687
34 Massachusetts 21,358
35 Kentucky 21,170
36 Virginia 19,928
37 New Mexico 18,779
38 Puerto Rico 18,485
39 Connecticut 18,335
40 Alaska 17,483
41 Wyoming 17,483
42 Michigan 17,032
43 Ohio 16,291
44 Colorado 15,739
45 Pennsylvania 15,107
46 Washington 13,836
47 West Virginia 11,749
48 Hawaii 10,225
49 Oregon 9,679
50 New Hampshire 7,350
51 Maine 4,511
52 Vermont 3,184

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 1,056
2 South Dakota 821
3 Wisconsin 725
4 Montana 696
5 Idaho 526
6 Wyoming 465
7 Iowa 436
8 Nebraska 425
9 Utah 414
10 Rhode Island 392
11 Oklahoma 371
12 Arkansas 353
13 Illinois 333
14 New Mexico 329
15 Kentucky 308
16 Indiana 301
17 Alaska 297
18 Tennessee 283
19 Mississippi 278
20 Missouri 274
21 Alabama 243
22 Colorado 226
23 Nevada 221
24 Kansas 220
25 Minnesota 219
26 Louisiana 203
27 Michigan 201
28 Texas 201
29 Ohio 194
30 North Carolina 186
31 South Carolina 186
32 Florida 176
33 West Virginia 142
34 Georgia 141
35 Arizona 136
36 Massachusetts 131
37 Pennsylvania 129
38 Virginia 127
39 Connecticut 126
40 New Jersey 119
41 California 116
42 Delaware 113
43 Puerto Rico 113
44 Maryland 100
45 Washington 89
46 New York 83
47 Oregon 81
48 District of Columbia 67
49 Hawaii 61
50 New Hampshire 60
51 Maine 25
52 Vermont 21

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,830
2 New York 1,697
3 Massachusetts 1,423
4 Connecticut 1,281
5 Louisiana 1,247
6 Rhode Island 1,107
7 Mississippi 1,085
8 District of Columbia 909
9 Arizona 804
10 Illinois 762
11 Florida 757
12 Michigan 747
13 South Carolina 729
14 Georgia 710
15 Delaware 688
16 Pennsylvania 676
17 Maryland 673
18 Texas 612
19 Indiana 603
20 Arkansas 587
21 Alabama 579
22 North Dakota 572
23 Nevada 563
24 Iowa 512
25 New Mexico 454
26 Missouri 445
27 Ohio 441
28 California 436
29 Tennessee 436
30 Minnesota 417
31 Virginia 412
32 South Dakota 392
33 North Carolina 391
34 Colorado 386
35 New Hampshire 345
36 Kansas 326
37 Kentucky 322
38 Idaho 313
39 Washington 313
40 Oklahoma 308
41 Nebraska 304
42 Wisconsin 297
43 Montana 261
44 Puerto Rico 245
45 West Virginia 233
46 Utah 175
47 Oregon 153
48 Hawaii 144
49 Wyoming 117
50 Maine 108
51 Vermont 92
52 Alaska 87

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Montana 11
2 North Dakota 10
3 Kansas 9
4 South Dakota 9
5 Iowa 7
6 Arkansas 6
7 Mississippi 6
8 South Carolina 6
9 Wisconsin 6
10 Wyoming 6
11 Indiana 5
12 Hawaii 4
13 Idaho 4
14 Kentucky 4
15 Missouri 4
16 North Carolina 4
17 Oklahoma 4
18 Rhode Island 4
19 Tennessee 4
20 Alabama 3
21 Florida 3
22 Illinois 3
23 Michigan 3
24 Minnesota 3
25 Nebraska 3
26 West Virginia 3
27 California 2
28 Georgia 2
29 Louisiana 2
30 Massachusetts 2
31 Nevada 2
32 New Mexico 2
33 Ohio 2
34 Pennsylvania 2
35 Texas 2
36 Virginia 2
37 Arizona 1
38 Connecticut 1
39 Delaware 1
40 Maryland 1
41 New Jersey 1
42 Oregon 1
43 Puerto Rico 1
44 Utah 1
45 Washington 1
46 Alaska 0
47 Colorado 0
48 District of Columbia 0
49 Maine 0
50 New Hampshire 0
51 New York 0
52 Vermont 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Lincoln Arkansas 175,829 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 159,072 2 99
Trousdale Tennessee 155,175 3 99
Lafayette Florida 150,202 4 99
Lake Tennessee 138,968 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 46,905 264 91
Richland South Carolina 40,531 411 86
York South Carolina 22,831 1452 53
Orange California 18,798 1801 42
Pierce Washington 11,809 2456 21

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Emporia city Virginia 5,238 1 99
Hancock Georgia 5,203 2 99
Kenedy Texas 4,950 3 99
Galax city Virginia 4,727 4 99
Randolph Georgia 4,279 5 99
Richland South Carolina 637 817 73
Davidson Tennessee 475 1155 63
Orange California 452 1218 61
York South Carolina 356 1470 53
Pierce Washington 269 1757 44

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons